You are here:   Columns >  Marketplace > Doom merchants of Davos

Newspaper doom and gloom about the economy is a response to market forces. Just as film companies have found that audiences like to watch sex, violence and horror, so editors are persuaded that economic commentary is most widely read if it is full of crashes and slumps. End-of-year forecasts for the year to come grab attention if they are loud with warnings. If we are to believe Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph, “a great settling of scores” lies ahead and this time, unlike 2008, it might “sweep away the entire economic order”.

The same syndrome afflicts the World Economic Forum meetings in Davos, held at the end of January every year. Crudely, the organisers have to fill seats. The publicity blurb for the latest event told the international great and the good, as they put together the 50,000 Swiss francs needed for an invitation, that, “the global context has changed dramatically: geostrategic fissures have re-emerged on multiple fronts . . . Economic prosperity and social cohesion are not one and the same. The global commons cannot protect or heal itself.”

Given the hullabaloo, it is important to check whether the world economy really is beset by instability and turmoil, and “geostrategic fissures on multiple fronts”. The International Monetary Fund brings together data from its 189 member countries to give numbers for the level and growth rate of world output, with the series in its current database starting in 1980. They show that in the 38 years inclusive from 1980 to 2017 the average growth rate of world output was 3.5 per cent. Because of the magic of compound interest, that would result in world output rising about 25 times if it could be maintained for a century. Yes, 25 times! Perhaps an awful lot is wrong somehow and somewhere, and maybe the Davos script-writers are right that we poor humans lack social cohesion, and cannot “protect or heal” ourselves. All the same, we are lucky to live at a time of astonishing economic dynamism.

Of course, an average growth rate of 3.5 per cent might not be comfortable if it were accompanied by contractions in output in one year and leaps in the next. So how are we to think about 2017 and 2018 in the context of the last few years when, allegedly, change has been experienced too “dramatically”? The IMF again has the answers. In 2012 world output rose by 3.5 per cent, in 2013 by 3.5 per cent, in 2014 by 3.6 per cent, in 2015 by 3.4 per cent, in 2016 by 3.2 per cent and in 2017 by 3.6 per cent. The main feature of the recent past is not the severe instability of growth, but its remarkable stability. In fact, the last six years have been the most stable in the entire 38-year period covered by readily-available IMF statistics.

Sure enough, the Great Recession of a decade ago was a blot on the escutcheon. But the Great Recession was the exception, not the norm. Indeed, in one respect it was totally unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s with which it is sometimes compared. Whereas the 1930s suffered mass unemployment in North America and much of Europe, the decade since the Great Recession has delivered strong employment growth. Western societies may not have the degree of social cohesion that members of the World Economic Forum regard as right and proper, but unemployment rates in several advanced countries are close to 25- or 30-year lows.
View Full Article

Post your comment

This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.